Those campaigning to get recreational marijuana legalized and abortion rights guaranteed in Florida have a lot of work to do.
Floridians will have the option to vote on both proposed constitutional amendments this November. But for the proposals to become the law the land, they must get at least 60% of the vote.
If the vote were taken right now, it’s far from certain that they would pass, according to an exclusive USA TODAY/Ipsos poll.
Of more than 1,000 adult Floridians polled, half said they would vote in favor of an abortion ballot measure. That’s 10 percentage points less than what’s required, but there’s also 16% who indicated they were not registered to vote or unsure of their position. A third say they would oppose that amendment.
Meantime, 49% of those polled said they’d vote for a marijuana amendment, with 14% saying they were unsure or unregistered and 36% against (1% skipped questions on both amendments).
And those pushing the amendments not only have to convince voters but also inform them in the months ahead: Only half of Floridians told pollsters they were very or somewhat familiar with the abortion measure, and 54% said the same about the marijuana one.
The poll, which had a margin of error of 4.1%, was conducted April 5-7, and included 369 Republicans, 264 Democrats, and 316 independents.
A breakdown on the abortion measure
The abortion amendment (Amendment 4) is likely to generate the most attention in Florida, especially since the Florida Supreme Court OK’d a six-week abortion ban that will take effect May 1.
If Amendment 4 is approved by Florida voters, abortion access would be assured in the state until fetal viability, or how soon a fetus can survive outside of its mother’s womb, generally considered 24 weeks. It would also allow abortions when necessary to protect a patient’s health, as determined by a health care provider.
Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group leading the campaign for the amendment, has raised nearly $20 million to date from a collection of abortion-rights groups. The group was set to officially launch its “Yes On 4” campaign on Saturday in Orlando.
Florida Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, have come out in force against the amendment. So have a number of prominent anti-abortion groups that will try to tank the measure this fall.
Opponents say the language is too vague and will lead to an unregulated abortion industry, but amendment proponents dismiss those claims as “scare tactics.”
The majority of Democrats polled – 74% – expressed support for an abortion initiative, with 17% opposed and 9% unsure or not registered to vote.
Independent were more split: 52% said they are in favor, but only 28% would vote against. A fifth were unsure or not registered.
Meanwhile, 58% of Republicans, who outnumber Democrats in Florida by nearly a million voters, said they’re against such a measure, with only 34% in support and 8% unsure or unregistered.
In Florida, there are 5,243,299 Republicans, 4,351,265 Democrats and 3,533,149 with no party affiliation, according to recent numbers from the state Division of Elections.
More on marijuana
The marijuana measure (Amendment 3) allows those older than 21 years old to have up to 3 ounces of pot and up to 5 grams of cannabis concentrate.
Smart & Safe Florida, the group leading the campaign for the amendment, has raised nearly $55 million so far. Most of that has already been spent on gathering enough signatures for the measure to make the ballot, and most of that has come from Trulieve, the state’s largest medical marijuana operator. Other state medical marijuana companies have started chipping in millions as well.
Again, DeSantis and other top conservatives in the state oppose the measure. DeSantis said it could lead to prolific pot smells and accuses it of being written so broadly that it would limit how the state could regulate the industry.
That’s something Smart & Safe Florida denies, saying the Florida Constitution, the proposed amendment and Florida Supreme Court precedent make clear that the state could enact recreational marijuana regulations, including ones limiting use in public places
But the group is going to have to convince more people, including Democrats, according to the USA TODAY/Ipsos data.
One-quarter of Democrats were opposed to a marijuana ballot measure and 64% were in favor, with 10% unsure or unregistered. Meanwhile, 38% of Republican indicated they’d vote yes, with 58% saying they’re against and 4% unsure or unregistered.
And 52% of independents say they’re in favor and 33% went in the other direction, with 15% being unregistered or unsure.
Of note: There’s roughly seven months left till Election Day, which is Nov. 5.
Douglas Soule can be reached at DSoule@gannett.com.
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