Florida Voters to Decide on Legalizing Recreational Marijuana

The TDR Three Takeaways on Florida

1. Florida’s move to put recreational marijuana on the ballot shows growing acceptance and could majorly change state cannabis laws, with Red states watching the outcome closely.
2. Polls show varied support for the marijuana initiative, indicating an uncertain outcome for the required 60% approval in November.
3. Legalizing recreational marijuana could boost Florida’s economy significantly, despite ongoing debates and regulatory challenges.

Florida’s Supreme Court today approved a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana, a move that could significantly alter the landscape of cannabis use in the nation’s third-most populous state. This decision not only reflects a growing acceptance of marijuana but also sets the stage for a November vote that could legalize recreational use in Florida.

The initiative, supported by a wide array of executives, experts, and advocates, requires a 60% majority to pass. Polls and predictive surveys are mixed and historical precedents and broad demographic support suggest a favorable outcome, with the initiative garnering widespread approval across age groups, income levels, and political affiliations. Notably, Florida’s largest medical marijuana program, boasting over 871,000 registered patients, underscores the state’s readiness for this progressive step.

Recent polling on Florida’s ballot initiative for legalizing recreational marijuana presents a mixed picture, highlighting the fluctuating levels of public support. While a University of North Florida (UNF) survey from November 30 last year indicated a 67% approval rate for the proposal, this marked a decrease from earlier polls. Previously, UNF found that support for legalizing recreational marijuana was higher, with 70% in spring 2023 and 76% in spring 2022. In the survey, Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and professor of political science, noted a shift in survey methodology, stating, “Unlike previous surveys when we simply asked if folks support or oppose legalization of recreational marijuana, this time we gave respondents the specifics of this proposed amendment.” He also emphasized the uncertain nature of the initiative’s success, contingent on its legal challenges, but remained optimistic about its passage potential.

Contrastingly, a poll by the Florida Chamber of Commerce in January revealed only 57% support among Florida voters for the legalization of recreational cannabis, falling short of the required 60% threshold for the measure to pass. This discrepancy in polling data illustrates the contentious and uncertain path forward for marijuana legalization in Florida. The divergent findings underscore the significance of the upcoming decision, as well as the variability in public opinion, potentially influenced by the specificity of the information provided to respondents and the broader legal and political context surrounding the initiative.

Governor Ron DeSantis’s mixed stance on cannabis—praising the benefits of medical marijuana while expressing concerns about recreational use—highlights the nuanced debate surrounding this issue. Despite his reservations, the potential economic impact of legalizing recreational marijuana in Florida cannot be ignored. Industry experts predict a significant increase in revenue, potentially doubling current sales and substantially boosting the U.S. cannabis market.

The Supreme Court’s decision addresses previous legal hurdles by affirming the initiative’s compliance with the single-subject rule and clarity requirements, setting a precedent for future marijuana legislation.

To date, recreational cannabis has been legalized in 24 states across the United States, including Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Montana, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. This widespread acceptance marks a significant shift in the national perspective on cannabis use. However, the journey towards legalization has not been uniform across all states. For instance, in Ohio last summer, a proposal that sought to increase the threshold for passing constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60% was defeated. This outcome facilitated the legalization of recreational cannabis for adults in Ohio last November, with the measure garnering 57% of the vote, demonstrating varying levels of support and legislative approaches to cannabis across the country.

Despite this progress, the path to legalization has been less favorable in some “red” states, where Florida finds itself based on the voter registration balance between Republicans and Democrats. Over the past year and a half, voters in Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma have all rejected proposals to legalize adult use of cannabis. In contrast, Missouri and Ohio as mentioned above approved legal cannabis in the same timeframe. Proponents of legalization in Florida are likely to highlight the financial benefits, pointing to estimates from the Florida Financial Impact Estimating Conference which projected that the retail sales of non-medical marijuana could generate at least $195.6 million annually in state and local tax revenues once the market is fully operational, leveraging economic arguments to bolster their case.

However, uncertainties regarding the implementation and regulation of legal cannabis remain, with the legislature needing to establish new rules and the governor’s approval required for any resultant bills. The outcome of the November vote will thus be one to watch, not only for Florida but also as a bellwether for national marijuana policy trends. Want to keep up to date with all of TDR’s research and news, subscribe to our daily Baked In newsletter.